Subluminal

(this is a blog entry that was initially a bluesky post – you can follow me at bsky.app/profile/antonymous.bsky.social)

I was reading the latest report from the @nationalacademies.org on global talents, and the need for a strategy to recruit and train talents. One sentence in the preface about the “missing millions” really caught my attention:

That reminded me of a post by the excellent @kareemcarr.bsky.social about how looking at the composition of the US population could explain some if its politics. Of particular interest is the baby boom bump that is only seen in the white population : The most common age among whites in U.S. is 58 – more than double that of racial and ethnic minorities – Pew Research center

That bump clearly announces that the positions of many retiring white researchers (academia isn’t very diverse) will need to be replaced – and the pool of talent will be much shallower than before if there is no effort to promote diversity: the “missing millions.”

I have seen that dynamic at play were I work: we’ve lost dozens of researchers to retirement, and it has been difficult to replace them. A major project I work on once had a a 50% turnover rate, causing a lot of pain – particularly among early career staff who need to deal w/ the loss knowledge

I was curious to see how that graph from the @pewresearch.org has evolved over the last five years. I downloaded postcensal data @censussdc.bsky.social and took a look. Things have shifted right (ahem), and the modal age is now 65 – retirement age. (analysis here: github.com/awojdyla/census)

I am a little worried with the incoming administration, particularly about their disregard for current DEI efforts, portrayed as handouts rather than the only way to solve an imminent problems while fixing historical wrongs. It’s also ironic that DOGE will be led by a 1st and a 2nd gen immigrant (update: ironically, Vivek Ramaswamy is the first victim of DEI cuts)

I’ve also made projections. The effect of the baby boom will be almost over in 2035. It is unclear what role the fertility rates declining worldwide will play (read this excellent piece by Herve Le Bras in @polytech-insights.bsky.social (here: www.polytechnique-insights.com/en/columns/s…)

If anything, promoting education and immigration seems to be key keep the scientific edge amid the demographic shift – precisely the recommendations of the @nationalacademies.org report on International Talent Programs in the Changing Global Environment